I highly doubt the Republican party establishment will be celebrating by being in the red, let alone blue, since it’s destined to be the most litigated, prolonged, dramatic, unpredictable, and chaotic election in U.S. history. But for now, we’ll chalk the early in-state victories for Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ben Jealous, Bhalla, Dave Wu, and Ann Marie Buerkle to an unassailable victory as bipartisan voters become increasingly wary of the Republican party’s increasingly reactionary, polarizing policies.
Take, for example, the fact that House Democrats successfully bagged 50 percent of the votes in their ten districts for representing Queens’s 13th Congressional District. In doing so, they beat out the tea party by 30 points, even though most party strategists predicted they would lose. And in cities that have been Beltway bastions for a long time, the chance to regain the suburbs can’t be ignored, especially as liberal voter anger grows, especially in the suburbs. And as that anger grows, the late-night talk shows are likely to get more extreme in saying the Republican Party is too extreme.
Early losses, and Democratic-held seats that they thought would be lost, can’t be ignored either. The final tally in the early contests for the House of Representatives is obviously far away, but one passage stands out: Yesterday’s presidential race verdict outstripped the Republican loss in 2000 by five points. In 2008, fewer Democrats voted for Barack Obama than they did for George W. Bush, though no one will admit it to Republicans.
Republicans will continue to lose seats, but as they do they may be emboldened by the win rates that I can see in the numbers: At least 78 Democrats are running for a seat this year for whom victory is likely, and 57 are fighting to retain their jobs. Democrats are about 40 percent out of control of the congressional GOP. But what does that mean? What does it mean for Republicans? It means that we’re now witnessing the most un-democratic electoral cycle in recent memory and, indeed, possible history. That is, it could be even more un-democratic than the most un-democratic campaign they’ve ever run. Republicans may be frantically calling special congress representatives to meet to discuss allegations of corruption or death threats. They may be making phone calls to polling places early in the morning to peel off some voters before the new vote count finishes, forcing districts to elect a primary winner early. They may be intimidating federal elections officials, intimidating congressional candidates, and conducting secret ballot recounts to try to keep enough black and Latino voters in their own districts. All these Democrats run for office with the state’s electoral formula based on the population of one of their own districts, although they must spend a lot of money to win in a state that weighs in almost 50 percent of the national population. It will be an unprecedented, not un-historic, dynamic. We’re sure Democrats in Congress will be whispering at Trump about the importance of these races, but it would be unfortunate for the GOP if the dynamics change enough to make them justifiably afraid of an upset.
With the early results in, this election is beginning to feel like an almost godless coalition like one of the revolutionary movements that kept colonial governments from imposing their planks. In the absence of any significant opposition, the Republicans have only an increasingly un-populist majority in the House of Representatives. They may also successfully push hard to put regulations on carbon dioxide and water pollution in the Environmental Protection Agency and potentially roll back regulations on medical devices like home devices. If that happens, there’s simply no room for independent, popular opinion. If the election results are true, we have yet another sign of the rising nationalism of a much larger people—not just the Republican Party. This victory of Sanders’s Democratic Party is reminiscent of the election of George Bush in 2000. The GOP went from Bush’s enthusiasm group to the rage group in a matter of two years. The Democrats went from the campaign groups to the field, being careful to make sure that the Trump resistance didn’t become too strong.
No, that’s not a dateline by the way. That’s something you could use in your lifetime. But it sure is a lot to take in. And for the first time in our recent memory, we’re beginning to count things on the day before Thanksgiving.